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BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care

BMJ

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.05% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Association of body composition, daily physical activity and handgrip strength with mortality, cardiovascular events and cancers in Japanese patients with diabetes

Hamasaki, H.

2026-06-10 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355239 medRxiv
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Aims: Sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular (CV) disease and mortality. This study examined the associations of body composition and daily physical activity with mortality, CV events and cancer in patients with diabetes. Methods: This prospective cohort study included patients with diabetes treated at a specialised clinic in Japan between January 2018 and March 2023. Body composition, including visceral adipose tissue (VAT), was assessed by bioelectrical impedance analysis. Daily physical activity was evaluated using the non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) questionnaire, and handgrip strength (HGS) was measured by dynamometry. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations with mortality, CV events, and cancer. Results: Among 2,024 patients (mean age 63.0 years, BMI 24.6 kg/m^2, HbA1c 7.8%), NEAT, HGS, and VAT were not independently associated with all-cause mortality. Higher VAT was associated with increased cancer risk (HR 1.485; 95% CI 1.101-2.003; p = 0.009). Higher HGS was inversely associated with CV event risk (HR 0.951; 95% CI 0.919-0.984; p = 0.004). NEAT was not associated with any outcome. Conclusions: Higher VAT was associated with increased cancer risk, whereas higher HGS was protective against CV events. Incorporating body composition and HGS assessments into clinical practice may improve risk stratification and management in patients with diabetes.

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Effectiveness of Lifestyle Interventions for Glycemic Control among Adults with Type 2 Diabetes in West Africa: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Bondzie, E. P. K.; Adjei-Banuah, N. Y.; Afun, N. E. E.; Peprah, E. B.; Jahan, Y.; Mirzoev, T.; Balabanova, D.; Agyepong, I.

2026-05-22 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.16.26353078 medRxiv
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Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) is a growing public health burden in West Africa, yet the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions for glycemic control in this region remains unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the impact of lifestyle interventions on Fasting Blood Glucose (FBG) and Glycated Hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels among adults with T2D in West Africa. A systematic search of PubMed, Scopus, Africa Journals Online, and Cairn.info was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental studies evaluating lifestyle interventions (physical activity, dietary modification, and combined/educational interventions) for glycemic control in adults with T2D in West Africa were included. Meta-analysis was performed via a random-effects model with restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation, using mean differences (MD) as the effect measure for both FBG and HbA1c outcomes. Heterogeneity was assessed via I2 statistics, and sensitivity, subgroup, and meta-regression analyses were conducted to examine potential moderators of the observed heterogeneity. Ten studies comprising 645 participants were included. Six studies reported FBG outcomes; however, two were excluded from the FBG meta-analysis due to missing control group post-test values and absence of a control group respectively, leaving four studies for pooling. A separate set of four studies contributed to the HbA1c meta-analysis. For FBG, lifestyle interventions were associated with reduction in FBG levels (pooled MD = -1.81 mmol/L, 95% CI: -2.33 to -1.30, p < 0.001), with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 50.76%). The certainty of evidence assessed using the GRADE approach was rated as low for FBG outcomes and very low for HbA1c outcomes, reflecting concerns about imprecision and inconsistency across studies. Leave-one-out sensitivity analysis confirmed robustness of this finding, with estimates ranging from -1.707 to -2.087 mmol/L. Neither intervention duration nor sample size significantly moderated FBG effect sizes, with the model explaining approximately 15.7% of observed heterogeneity. For HbA1c, lifestyle interventions were also associated with reduction in HbA1c levels (pooled MD = -1.044%, 95% CI: -1.594 to -0.495, p = 0.0002), though heterogeneity was exceptionally high (I2 = 98.08%), limiting interpretability of the pooled estimate. Exploratory meta-regression identified intervention duration and sample size as statistically associated with HbA1c effect size, though the model was saturated given the small number of studies and findings should not be interpreted as confirmatory evidence of moderation. Conclusion: Lifestyle interventions, including supervised physical activity, dietary modification, and community-based diabetes education, were generally associated with improvements in glycemic control among adults with type 2 diabetes in West Africa. Evidence was more consistent for fasting blood glucose, while findings for HbA1c were highly heterogeneous and should be interpreted with caution. These results suggest potential benefit, but variability across studies highlights the need for more standardized and rigorously designed trials in the region.

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Gaps in lipid management after diabetes diagnosis and associated cardiovascular outcomes in a cohort of US adults

Heilman, A. M.; Warsavage, T.; Liu, W. G.; Wilson, P. W.; Phillips, L. S.; Reusch, J. E.; Raghavan, S.

2026-05-26 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.24.26354000 medRxiv
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Importance: Despite the benefits of statin therapy in individuals with diabetes, fewer than 70% of adults with diabetes meet contemporary guidelines for statin therapy and reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) to <100 mg/dL. Evidence describing delays in statin initiation after diabetes diagnosis and associated clinical outcomes may motivate process of care interventions to improve guideline recommended care in individuals newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). Objective: To examine the timing of statin initiation and achievement of LDL <100 mg/dL after diabetes diagnosis, and to determine the association of early LDL reduction among statin initiators with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Design: Retrospective observational cohort study using data from 2005-2021 Setting: Veterans Affairs Health Care System (VA) Participants: Individuals with newly diagnosed T2D Exposure: Primary exposure was ASCVD risk based on ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations; secondary exposure was LDL <100 mg/dL in the first year after T2D diagnosis among statin initiators Main Outcomes and Measures: Co-primary outcomes were initiation of statin therapy and achievement of LDL <100 mg/dL within 5 years of diabetes diagnosis; incident 5-year ASCVD was a secondary outcome. Results: Among 100,406 individuals with newly diagnosed T2D, 59,615 were prescribed statin therapy within five years (59.4%), and 44,783 (57.5%) of those with LDL above goal achieved LDL <100 mg/dL within 5 years. Relative to those at low (<7.5%) 10-year ASCVD risk, individuals at intermediate (7.5-20%) and high (>20%) risk were more likely to be initiated on a statin (intermediate: Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.14 [95% CI 1.11, 1.17]; high: HR 1.16 [95% CI 1.13, 1.19]) and to achieve LDL <100 mg/dL (intermediate: HR 1.23 [95% CI 1.19, 1.26]; high: HR 1.34 [95% CI 1.30, 1.38]). Among those prescribed a statin within one year of diabetes diagnosis, achieving LDL <100 mg/dL in the first year after diabetes diagnosis was associated with lower risk of 5-year incident ASCVD (HR 0.84 [95% CI 0.77, 0.92]). Conclusions and Relevance: Gaps in guideline-directed primary prevention of ASCVD arise early following initial diabetes diagnosis. Guideline recommended early LDL lowering among statin initiators was associated with improved clinical outcomes.

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Glycemic response trajectories on metformin monotherapy in real-world diabetes care

Raghavan, S.; Liu, W. G.; Ho, M. R.; Warsavage, T.; Ghosh, D.; Caplan, L.; Reusch, J. E.

2026-05-26 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353996 medRxiv
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Objectives: Diabetes affects over 500 million people globally and glycemia is inadequately managed. Metformin is the most frequently prescribed initial treatment for type 2 diabetes globally, yet glycemic response trajectories to metformin in routine real-world care and predictors of treatment response have not been well described. We aimed to identify glycemic response trajectories in adults prescribed metformin monotherapy as initial type 2 diabetes treatment and predictors of poor glycemic response to metformin. Design: Observational cohort study using latent class mixed models to identify hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) trajectory classes, followed by random forests machine learning to predict trajectory class membership. Setting: US Veterans Affairs Healthcare System Participants: Adults treated with metformin alone for >30 days after diabetes diagnosis with a minimum of two HbA1c measurements from 90 days prior to two years after the first metformin prescription (N=140,413). Exposures: Demographic, laboratory, vital sign, and comorbidity data were included as predictors of metformin response trajectory Main Outcomes and Measures: We included all HbA1c measurements (487,604 total) for two years after metformin initiation to define metformin glycemic response trajectories. Results: We identified three HbA1c trajectories: stably low (89.7% of sample, mean HbA1c decrease from 7.2% to 6.6%), brisk response (7.1% of sample, mean HbA1c decrease from 11.4% to 7.0%), and non-response (3.1% of sample, mean HbA1c increase from 8.9% to 10.8%). Of those in the stably low and brisk response classes at 2 years, 91% maintained HbA1c at approximately 7% on metformin alone for 5 years after drug initiation. Prediction models could accurately predict brisk response (91% accuracy) but not metformin non-response (59% accuracy). Conclusions: Most individuals treated initially with metformin monotherapy have a beneficial and durable glycemic response. Predicting individuals who will not respond to metformin may be challenging but is evident within six months with recommended glycemic surveillance. The findings support current guidelines for HbA1c surveillance when initiating diabetes treatment.

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OCT1 Variants Are Associated with Metformin Clearance and Gluconeogenesis: Mechanistic Insights for Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes in the MIGHTY Study

Cantor, S.; Zeng, Y.; Davis, F.; Glaros, S.; Macheret, N.; Malandrino, N.; Mabundo, L.; Arisa, O.; Adeyemo, A.; Cai, H.; courville, a.; Shouppe, E.; Walter, M.; Walter, P.; Rotimi, C.; Figg, W.; Bentley, A.; Chung, S.

2026-05-28 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354152 medRxiv
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Aims/Hypothesis: Behavioral and phenotypic characteristics do not fully explain variability in African Americans with youth-onset type 2 diabetes (Y-T2D) treated with metformin with or without liraglutide. We hypothesized that biological heterogeneity, including genetic variation in the metformin transporter OCT1, influences metformin pharmacokinetics and hepatic glucose flux. Therefore, we sought to characterize metformin pharmacokinetics in Y-T2D and evaluate genetic variants known to modulate metformin efficacy in adults to determine the mechanisms underlying variation in treatment response. Methods: We evaluated genetic variants related to metformin transport and mechanisms of action in 30 Y-T2D using a candidate-gene approach to evaluate the association of pharmacogenetic variants with fasting glucose and gluconeogenesis. In a subset of Y-T2D randomized to 3 months of metformin (n=11) or metformin and liraglutide (n=8), we constructed a metformin population pharmacokinetic model and evaluated gene variant associations. Results: A one-compartment first-order absorption and elimination pharmacokinetic model provided the optimal fit. Metformin pharmacokinetic parameters were similar by group and not related to glycemia. The rs628031_OCT1 A allele was associated with greater metformin clearance. The rs622342_OCT1 C allele was associated with lower post-treatment fractional gluconeogenesis ({beta} [95% CI] = -8.8 [-14.13, -3.47] %, Adjusted R2 = 0.56, P = 0.003). The rs7903146_TCF7L2 T allele was associated with greater reductions in fasting glucose among those treated with metformin + liraglutide ({beta} = -1.32 [-2.42, -0.22] mmol/L, Adjusted R2 = 0.8, P<0.002), but baseline glucose and gluconeogenesis (P<0.0001) were the strongest predictors of post-treatment glycemia. Conclusion/interpretation: In Y-T2D, OCT1 gene variants rs628031 and rs622342 were associated with metformin clearance and gluconeogenesis, respectively. TCF7L2 variant rs7903146 may contribute to differences in glycemic response in youth treated with metformin and liraglutide. These findings suggest genetic variants may be important for understanding variable metformin response in Y-T2D.

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Similar HbA1c, Similar BMI, Different disease: The Adipo-B Index Reveals Hidden Metabolic Heterogeneity in Newly Diagnosed Japanese Subjects with Type 2 Diabetes

Kutoh, E.; Kuto, A. N.

2026-06-02 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.31.26354545 medRxiv
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Objective: Patients and physicians frequently focus on HbA1c and weight alone. We hypothesized that individuals with similar HbA1c and BMI may present markedly distinct metabolic backgrounds. We investigated whether the adipo-B index- composite of adipose insulin resistance (adipo-IR) and beta-cell function (HOMA-B)-can uncover hidden heterogeneity in this clinically homogeneous population. Methods: A total of 399 newly diagnosed, drug-naive Japanese subjects with T2DM were analyzed. Histograms of HbA1c and BMI demonstrated peak distributions within HbA1c 8-10% and BMI 24-26. Based on these distributions, a clinically homogeneous subgroup was defined to minimize confounding by glycemic severity and adiposity. Metabolic parameters including FBG, insulin, FFA, HOMA-R, HOMA-B, adipo-IR, adipo-B, T-C, TG, HDL-C and non-HDL-C were analyzed. Simple regression, multivariable linear regression, and subgroup stratification analyses were performed. Results: Despite comparable HbA1c and BMI by design, adipo-B stratification revealed significant differences in HOMA-B, FFA, non-HDL-C, and TG, whereas HOMA-R stratification identified only higher insulin and adipo-IR without differences in lipids or HOMA-B. Thus, adipo-B-but not HOMA-R-identified a lipotoxic, beta-cell-stressed phenotype invisible to conventional markers. Simple regression showed significant positive correlations between adipo-B and HbA1c, FBG, FFA, T-C, TG, and non-HDL-C, and negative correlations with insulin and HOMA-B. Multivariable linear regression confirmed that adipo-B was independently associated with non-HDL cholesterol, TG, and FFA after adjustment for HbA1c and BMI. Conclusion: Even among patients with identical HbA1c and BMI, the adipo-B index uncovers clinically relevant metabolic heterogeneity, supporting its role as a functional marker of the adipose-pancreas axis and a potential tool for precision phenotyping in early T2DM.

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Role of genetic risk on progression to diabetes in children with acute pancreatitis

Zhang, L.; Ahmed, F.; Sharp, S. A.; Sun, H.; Thaman, S.; Wasserfall, C. H.; Gloyn, A. L.; Abu-El-Haija, M.

2026-05-25 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.23.26353958 medRxiv
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Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an established risk factor for diabetes, with approximately 20% of children developing either prediabetes or diabetes within one year of their first episode. Little is known about the diabetes pathophysiology or which individuals are at highest risk. We aimed to evaluate whether genetic risk scores (GRS) for type 1 (T1D) and polygenic risk scores (PRS) type 2 diabetes (T2D) are associated with progression to dysglycemia following AP. Methods: Clinical data were available for 123 children (mean age (IQR), 12 (8-15) years; mean body mass index (BMI), 21.8) with AP who were followed for >1 year. Array genotyping coupled with imputation using the TOPMed reference panel was performed. Genetic ancestry was predicted using a random forest classifier. GRS for T1D and T2D were calculated using either an ancestry-appropriate (T1D-GRS) or a multi-ancestry (T2D-PRS) weighted framework. To evaluate risk compared to the population we used predefined GRS thresholds from UK Biobank. Results: Among the 123 subjects, 24 developed dysglycemia (5 with diabetes and 19 with prediabetes). The majority (75.6%, n=93) of children were of European ancestry. Comparison of the T1D-GRS burden with the UK BioBank showed numerically higher proportions for any given threshold. At the top 5% threshold, 9.7% of our cohort were classified as high-risk compared to 5% in UK Biobank (p<0.05). The elevated T1D-GRS could be primarily attributed to non-HLA variants and was more enriched in those testing positive for [&ge;]1 islet-autoantibody. The T2D-PRS was also elevated in the dysglycemic group but only reached statistical significance in those who were obese. Conclusion: These findings highlight the potential role of both T1D-GRS and T2D-PRS in investigating diabetes susceptibility following AP.

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Vertical Sleeve Gastrectomy inhibits 11βHSD1 and subsequently reduces IL6 secretion in Mice and Humans: A Shared Anti-Inflammatory Mechanism

Liang, S.; Samarasinghe, S.; Johnson, B.; Doria Durazzo, I.; Wang, W.; Tsou, H. L. P.; Riva, A.; Miras, A. D.; Akalestou, E.

2026-05-15 physiology 10.64898/2026.05.12.724611 medRxiv
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BackgroundVertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG) improves glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes (T2D) through mechanisms that extend beyond weight loss. The interaction between glucocorticoid metabolism and inflammation in this context remains unclear. MethodsWe investigated the role of 11{beta}-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11{beta}HSD1) in mediating the metabolic effects of VSG in humans and mice. Subcutaneous adipose tissue biopsies were collected before and 6 months after VSG. Parallel studies were conducted in lean and high-fat diet-fed mice undergoing VSG or sham surgery, alongside 11{beta}HSD1 knockout models. Glucose tolerance and expression of 11{beta}HSD1 and interleukin-6 (IL6) were assessed. Mechanistic interactions were examined in IL6-treated human hepatocytes. ResultsVSG reduced 11{beta}HSD1 and IL6 expression in human adipose tissue and improved insulin resistance. In lean mice, VSG improved glucose tolerance and downregulated both markers independently of weight loss. 11{beta}HSD1 knockout mice exhibited improved glucose tolerance despite increased adiposity, partially recapitulating the VSG phenotype. Both interventions reduced circulating and tissue IL6 levels. IL6 stimulation increased HSD11B1 expression in hepatocytes. Conclusions11{beta}HSD1 links glucocorticoid metabolism, inflammation, and glucose homeostasis following VSG. Targeting this pathway may offer a strategy to replicate key metabolic benefits of metabolic bariatric surgery.

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Biological Age and Complication Prediction in Hypertension: A 13-Year Cohort

Kim, B.-s.; Bae, C.-y.; Kim, I.-h.; Choi, Y.-j.; Jeon, M.-h.

2026-05-29 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354288 medRxiv
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1. Background: With the rising prevalence of hypertension, especially among younger populations, there is a critical need to better assess health status and predict associated complications. This study developed a biological age model ("hypertension age") for hypertensive patients to predict the risk and timing of major complications. 2. Methods: Using South Korea's NHIS-NHID data, researchers analyzed 4,535,041 hypertensive patients who underwent health examinations between 2009 and 2010. Patients were followed for an average of 12.40 years (until 2022). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to develop the biological age (cBA) model. The risk and onset timing of complications were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards and multiple regression models, adjusting for variables like medication use and baseline diseases. 3. Results: A 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in the age gap?where biological age exceeds chronological age (cBA - CA)?was significantly associated with an elevated risk for all major complications in both sexes (p < 0.001). Furthermore, a 1-SD increase in this gap significantly accelerated the time to complication onset for nearly all conditions (p < 0.001), with the exception of dementia in women. The impacts of medication use, hypertension duration, and baseline comorbidities varied by specific complication. 4. Conclusions: Lowering "hypertension age" relative to chronological age can significantly reduce the risk and delay the onset of major cardiovascular and related complications. Quantifying this biological age gap serves as a powerful motivational tool for personalized health management and complication prevention in hypertensive patients.

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Deep Longitudinal Clusters of Type 2 Diabetes Pathophysiology and their Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events and All-Cause Mortality

Varghese, J. S.; Guo, J.; Hua, D.; Hung, T.; Li, Z.; Tang, S.; Patel, S. A.; Ho, J. C.

2026-06-03 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354645 medRxiv
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Objective: Despite the complex and non-linear progression of diabetes, its shared pathways with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are conventionally described using models based on single time points. We identified longitudinal diabetes clusters before diagnosis using deep learning and studied their association with ASCVD events and mortality. Methods: We analyzed 157,670 visits from 15,871 adults (25-65 years) without diabetes from four pooled U.S. cohorts (median follow-up: 22 years [IQR: 9-30]). A gated recurrent unit model with decay (GRU-D) was used to predict 1-year risk of diabetes or censoring within 10 years, by learning longitudinal embeddings across 25 clinical characteristics and biomarkers. Parallel Factor Analysis-2 (PARAFAC-2) and Gaussian mixture models (GMM) were used to group longitudinal participant representations as clusters. Landmark time Cox proportional hazards regressions, relative to last observation in the training window, were used to study covariate-adjusted associations of clusters with ASCVD and mortality. Prognostic utility of clusters beyond the PREVENT risk score was assessed using Harrell's C-index. Findings were replicated in a fifth cohort. Results: The analytic sample was aged 49 years [SD: 11], 58% female, and 68% white; 1,202 (8%) developed diabetes within the first 10 years. We identified five clusters (Cluster A to E) that differed in their clinical characteristics over time. Cluster E (46%) had the highest cumulative incidence of diabetes in the study period, followed by Cluster C (40%) and Cluster A (38%). Cluster C, which was defined by older age, high blood pressure, and suboptimal renal function at the first visit, had higher rates of ASCVD (HR: 1.09, 95%CI: 0.98-1.21) and mortality (HR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.00-1.16), relative to Cluster A despite being similar in age and BMI at the first visit. Relative to Cluster A, all other clusters had similar or lower rates of ASCVD and mortality. We observed substantial cluster effects for three clusters (Clusters C to E), which were based on only two cohorts. The two clusters (Clusters A and B) that included participants from all four cohorts were reproduced in the fifth cohort and showed similar rates of outcomes. Clusters did not improve ASCVD prognosis, relative to a model that included only the PREVENT risk score. Conclusions: Longitudinal clusters reveal substantial heterogeneity in the period before diabetes diagnosis, and their risk for ASCVD and mortality. However, clusters discovered may, in part, be explained by cohort effects from variations in recruitment and visit patterns after recruitment.

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Domain-based basal and ambulatory glycemic exposure metrics derived from continuous glucose monitoring: a real-world clinic-based study

Shinde, S. N.; Shinde, R. S.; Bhangaaley, S. Y.

2026-05-26 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353983 medRxiv
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Background: Consensus continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) metrics, including time in range (TIR), time above range (TAR), time below range (TBR), mean glucose, glucose management indicator, and glycemic variability, are essential for modern glucose assessment. However, these whole-day summaries do not explicitly partition nocturnal basal from daytime ambulatory glycemic burden. Objective: To develop and evaluate a complementary domain-based CGM framework that quantifies basal and daytime ambulatory glycemic exposure across oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-derived dysglycemia phenotypes. Methods: In this observational, clinic-based study, 253 individuals underwent OGTT with insulin measurement and CGM. Participants were classified using a prespecified OGTT-derived phenotyping algorithm, implemented through a deterministic rules-based web calculator, and collapsed into five groups: NoDM, Increased insulin resistance, Midzone Glycemia, Prediabetes, and Diabetes. CGM files were uniformly reprocessed by selecting the latest contiguous episode and retaining the most recent 15 calendar days with data. The 24-hour profile was partitioned into nocturnal basal (00:00 to <06:00) and daytime ambulatory (06:00 to <24:00) domains. Derived indices included Area of Basal Glycemia (ABG), Area of Prandial/Daytime Ambulatory Glycemia (APG), incremental ABG (iABG), incremental APG (iAPG), and exploratory deficit indices dABG and dAPG. Results: The final dataset contributed 3,647 analyzable CGM days. APG remained higher than ABG across all groups. Mean ABG/APG increased from 80.45/86.38 mg/dL in NoDM to 111.96/124.70 mg/dL in Diabetes. Mean iABG/iAPG increased from 5.65/6.60 to 34.12/38.91 mg/dL, whereas dABG/dAPG declined as dysglycemia worsened. Conclusions: The ABG/APG framework provides interpretable, domain-resolved CGM burden metrics that separate basal from daytime ambulatory exposure and distinguish total burden from above-threshold excess. These indices are proposed as adjunctive metrics to support dysglycemia phenotyping, early risk recognition, and treatment monitoring, but are not intended to replace established consensus CGM metrics or diagnostic criteria. External, prospective validation is required.

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Prevalence, duration, and clinical implications of Continuous Glucose Monitor (CGM) measurement limit capping in type 1 diabetes.

Mulley, J. F.

2026-05-15 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.13.26353094 medRxiv
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Aims CGM devices report glucose only within fixed limits (typically 40-400 mg/dL; 2.2-22.2 mmol/L), truncating extreme values to a boundary ("capping"). We characterised prevalence, duration, and consequences of capping in type 1 diabetes trial data. Materials and Methods We analysed 46,990,617 CGM readings from 948 participants across four publicly available clinical trial datasets (Dexcom G4 Platinum or G6 sensors). Capping prevalence, run duration, and associations with age, HbA1c and sex were characterised across all datasets. In the 77 participants of the Replace-BG trial CGM-plus-blood glucose monitor (BGM) arm, CGM-derived metrics were compared with contemporaneous BGM measurements across 1,162 non-overlapping 14-day windows. Results Between 93.5% and 100% of participants had at least one capped reading, and capped values comprised 0.47-0.98% of all readings. In the three datasets for which duration could be calculated, over 70% of upper-cap runs exceeded 15 minutes and over one third exceeded 60 minutes. Upper-limit capping was inversely associated with age (Spearman {rho} -0.20 to -0.47, p[&le;]0.002) in three of the datasets, and positively associated with baseline HbA1c ({rho} 0.39-0.62, p<0.001) in all four datasets. A within-participant analysis showed that capping burden did not predict CGM-BGM divergence in any summary metric (all p>0.2), and a systematic CGM-BGM offset in mean glucose and time in range (TIR) reflected the physiological lag between blood and interstitial fluid rather than capping artefact. Conclusions Sensor limit capping is near-universal in type 1 diabetes, produces sustained periods of right-censored glucose data disproportionately affecting younger patients, and does not substantially distort standard summary metrics at the population level. Clinicians and trialists should be aware that CGM data can confirm extreme glucose events but cannot quantify their severity.

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Comorbid type 2 diabetes and chronic gastroduodenitis synergistically increase adverse clinical outcomes: implications for MRI-derived phenotype-tailored dietary strategies

Cui, Y.-L.; Yu, Y.; Cui, G.-b.; Hu, B.

2026-06-03 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354665 medRxiv
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Background Chronic gastritis and duodenitis (CGD) are highly prevalent among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the prognostic impact of their comorbidity and the potential role of MRI-derived phenotype-tailored dietary strategies remain unclear. Methods This prospective cohort study included 453,768 UK Biobank participants. Primary endpoints were myocardial infarction, stroke, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), dementia, Parkinson's disease, and all-cause mortality. Time-dependent multivariable Cox regression assessed outcome associations, while additive interaction analyses evaluated synergistic effects between T2D and CGD. Eight healthy dietary pattern scores were analyzed. Latent profile analysis classified MRI-derived body composition phenotypes based on fat distribution and organ volume. Results T2D and CGD were positively associated, and their comorbidity increased risks of cardiovascular events, ESRD, dementia, and all-cause mortality. Additive interaction analyses demonstrated synergistic effects on myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality. The comorbidity was further associated with aggravated lipid metabolic abnormalities and multiorgan atrophy. Higher adherence to the Healthful Plant-Based Diet Index (HPDI) and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diets attenuated the excess mortality risk related to this synergy. Dietary associations varied across T2D, CGD, and comorbid populations, while MRI-based latent profiles modified diet-outcome relationships. A nomogram integrating demographic, dietary, and body composition data demonstrated reliable long-term predictive performance for myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality. Conclusions Comorbid T2D and CGD substantially increase adverse clinical risks and exhibit synergistic effects on myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality. These findings support routine CGD screening in T2D care and provide population-based evidence for MRI-derived phenotype-tailored dietary strategies.

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Association Between Purchase of Organic Food and Hypertension Among US Adults: NHANES 2007-2010

Choi, C.; Nianogo, R. A.; Chen, L.; Arah, O. A.

2026-05-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.13.26353146 medRxiv
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Background: An increasing demand for organic food has risen due to perceived health benefits. Current evidence for the health effects of organic food is limited. Objective: To evaluate the association between organic food purchase as a proxy for organic food consumption and hypertension in a nationally representative population of the US. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study that included 9173 participants aged >= 18 and had available data of both organic food purchase and hypertension from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2010. Organic food purchase and frequency were obtained from survey questionnaires. Hypertension was defined as having either a systolic BP >= 130 mm Hg/ diastolic BP >= 80 mm Hg, currently taking antihypertensive medication, or self-reported diagnosis of hypertension. We used multivariable logistic regression with sample weights and adjustment of potential confounders to assess associations (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] and 95% confidence intervals [CI]) between organic food purchase and hypertension status. Results: Findings suggest an 11% decrease in odds of hypertension (aOR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.75-1.06) among organic food purchasers compared to non-purchasers. Lower odds of hypertension were observed across all categories of organic food purchasing frequency, with 13% lower among rarely purchasing organic food (aOR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.67-1.14), 9% lower (aOR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.71-1.16) among sometimes purchasing organic food, and 17% lower (aOR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.55-1.27) among always or mostly purchasing organic food, as compared to those who never purchased organic food. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that organic food purchase, a proxy for organic food consumption, may be associated with lower odds of hypertension. These findings may reflect either the true benefits of organic food consumption, including lower pesticide amounts and higher nutrient content, or the health-seeking behaviors among health-conscious, healthy, and highly educated individuals.

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Multidomain HMOD in Ghanaian Adults: Prevalence, Predictors, and Implications

Agyapong, K. O.; Kyeremah, E.; Folson, A. A.; Agyekum, F.; Blenman, K. R. M.; Appiah, L.; Adu-Boakye, Y.; Owusu, I. K.

2026-05-30 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.21.26353747 medRxiv
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Background: Comprehensive assessment of hypertension-mediated organ damage (HMOD) across multiple organ systems remains limited in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the prevalence and predictors of multidomain HMOD in a geographically diverse Ghanaian adult population. Methods: This secondary analysis of the Ghana Heart Study included 1,106 adults from four regions. Multidomain HMOD was defined as a pre-specified 9-domain TOD composite score ?2, based on the ESH/ESC 2018 guidelines framework. Logistic regression and ROC analysis were used to identify predictors and compare discriminative performance. Results: Mean age was 46.9 (17.2) years and 58% were female. Multidomain HMOD prevalence was 21.2% (235/1,106) and increased steeply with age: 8.6% (<45 years), 20.6% (45?59 years), and 44.4% (?60 years). Hypertension prevalence was 73% in the HMOD group versus 28% in those without HMOD (p < 0.001). The strongest independent associations were peripheral artery disease (OR 41.2), valvular burden (OR 14.4), and ECG-LVH (OR 9.0). baPWV showed superior discriminative performance (AUC 0.827, 95% CI 0.794?0.860) compared with the ASCVD Pooled Cohort Equations (AUC 0.466; ?AUC +0.351, DeLong test p < 0.001). Conclusions: One in five Ghanaian adults has hypertension-mediated organ damage in ?2 organ systems. baPWV is the strongest predictor and substantially improves risk stratification beyond conventional scores. These findings support the use of baPWV to guide hypertension management and HMOD assessment in West Africa.

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Comparative Risk of Stroke Associated with GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and SGLT2 Inhibitors in Veterans with Type 2 Diabetes

Sun, S. C.; Houghton, S. C.; Li, Y.; Nguyen, X.-M.; Djousse, L.; Cho, K.; Aparicio, H. J.; Wilson, P. W. F.

2026-05-17 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.05.13.26353028 medRxiv
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Introduction Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We evaluated the comparative stroke risk in Veterans with T2D initiated on either of two glucose-lowering medications: GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) or SGLT-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i). Patients and Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study on diabetic Veterans aged 40 and older with no prior history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, who started on a GLP-1RA or SGLT2i between 2014 and 2021. Patients with contraindications or prior exposure to medication were excluded. Using national Veteran health data, we identified 195,072 [SS1.1]eligible individuals and followed them from treatment initiation until stroke, death, loss to follow up, or end of follow up, whichever came first. Primary outcome was incident stroke, and secondary outcomes included ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. We applied Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted associations were estimated using inverse probability weighting. Results Both unadjusted and adjusted analyses suggest GLP-1RA users have reduced stroke incidence compared SGLT-2i users[HS2.1] (HR = 0.[HS3.1]67, 95% CI 0.64-0.69; HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.69-0.75). Similar results were found in secondary outcome and stratified analyses, with GLP-1RA users having reduced stroke risk compared to SGLT2i users for all age groups, chronic kidney disease stages, and hemoglobin A1c levels. Discussion and Conclusion GLP-1RA treatment was associated with a lower risk of stroke compared with SGLT2i treatment in Veterans with T2D. These findings were consistent for ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, suggesting potential differences in stroke risk between the treatments.

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A Prospective Observational Study on a Multimodal Non-Invasive Physiological Monitoring System (Hayl): Feasibility, Signal Characterization, and Exploratory Biomarker Correlation

Choda, G.; Choda, A.

2026-05-17 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.13.26353115 medRxiv
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Chronic conditions such as Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and Hypertension (HTN) remain underdiagnosed in community settings, particularly in resource-limited populations. Conventional diagnostic approaches rely on episodic measurements and laboratory-based assessments, limiting scalability for large-scale screening. Non-invasive physiological monitoring systems offer a potential pathway for accessible and rapid wellness assessment in real-world environments. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility, signal acquisition performance, and exploratory physiological signal characteristics of a non-invasive multimodal monitoring system (Hayl) in community-based screening settings. Methods: A prospective, cross-sectional, multicenter observational pilot study was conducted across rural and urban screening camps in south India. A total of 281 adult participants were enrolled, including individuals with known T2DM, HTN, and those without known comorbidities, encompassing both symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects. Physiological data were acquired using the Hayl system, which integrates photoplethysmography (PPG) and temperature sensing. Signal acquisition feasibility, waveform quality, and derived signal characteristics were evaluated. Comparative and exploratory analyses were performed across predefined clinical subgroups. The study was conducted under Institutional Ethics Committee approval in accordance with guidelines from the Indian Council of Medical Research. Conclusion: The Hayl system demonstrated high feasibility for physiological signal acquisition, with successful PPG recordings in 274 participants (97.5%) and temperature signals in 279 participants (99.3%). Most recordings exhibited high waveform quality (74.0%), with observable variations in signal characteristics across clinically relevant subgroups. Reduced pulse variability and increased waveform irregularity were more frequently observed in participants with T2DM and HTN, while symptomatic individuals demonstrated greater signal variability compared to asymptomatic participants. Temperature measurements were stable, with a mean peripheral temperature of 33.4 with a variation of 1.2C degrees. These findings support the potential of Hayl as a non-invasive multimodal platform for community-based wellness screening and exploratory signal-based physiological assessment. Further large-scale and longitudinal studies are required to establish clinical utility.

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Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in China, 1990-2021: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Wang, M.; Zhao, T.; Wang, H.; Hou, S.; Fu, Y.

2026-06-09 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355056 medRxiv
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Introduction: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of chronic kidney diseases (CKD) in China in 2021 and its trends between 1990 and 2021, in the context of significant population growth and lifestyle changes over the past 30 years that have likely influenced the CKD spectrum. Methods: Data on CKD prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), and risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The estimated decadal percentage changes were calculated to evaluate changes in trends in prevalence, mortality and disease burden. Results: In 2021, an estimated 118.4 (95% UI 109.4 to 127.5) million people in China were affected by CKD, contributing to 204 230 (95% UI 164 736 to 246 372) deaths and 6.13 (95% UI 5.18 to 7.21) million DALY. Although CKD due to diabetes mellitus and hypertension accounted for less than a quarter of all cases, they were responsible for over 90% of CKD-related deaths. Over the past three decades, CKD mortality and DALY rates have steadily increased, although the prevalence has stabilized in the last decade. Diabetes mellitus type 2 and hypertension have emerged as key drivers of CKD burden in China. Conclusions: The CKD burden in China shows a dual pattern of rising incidence and high mortality from diabetes and hypertension-related chronic kidney disease, alongside persistently high years lived with disability from glomerulonephritis and other causes.

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TNF-α-Driven NOX5 Activation Promotes Oxidative Stress and Umbilical Artery Dysfunction in Preeclampsia

Carvalho Barbosa, N.; Machado, M. R.; Alves, J. V.; Oliveira-Neto, J. T.; Silva, J. F.; Cavalli, R. C.; Tostes, R. C.; Lobato, N. S.; Costa, R. M.

2026-05-21 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.05.18.726116 medRxiv
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BackgroundPreeclampsia (PE) is a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy characterized by systemic inflammation, oxidative stress, and endothelial dysfunction. Although maternal vascular dysfunction is well established in PE, the mechanisms underlying fetal vascular injury remain poorly understood. We investigated whether inflammatory signaling activates NADPH oxidase 5 (NOX5) and contributes to oxidative stress and dysfunction in human umbilical arteries from pregnancies complicated by PE. MethodsUmbilical arteries and serum samples were obtained from normotensive pregnant women (NP) and women with PE. Vascular reactivity, nitric oxide (NO) bioavailability, reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, cytokine levels, and NOX isoform expression were evaluated in human umbilical arteries and EA.hy926 endothelial cells. Pharmacological inhibition of NOX5, TNF- neutralization, Ca{superscript 2} channel blockade, and siRNA-mediated NOX5 silencing were used to investigate mechanisms. ResultsPE umbilical arteries exhibited increased vasoconstrictor responses, oxidative stress, and NOX5 expression, accompanied by impairment of NO bioavailability. NOX5 inhibition reversed vascular hyperreactivity in PE vessels. Exposure of normotensive umbilical arteries to PE serum reproduced the PE vascular phenotype, characterized by enhanced ROS generation, reduced NO levels, and hypercontractility. In endothelial cells, PE serum induced TNF--dependent Ca{superscript 2} influx, oxidative stress, and reduced NO production. Both pharmacological and genetic inhibition of NOX5 prevented these alterations. ConclusionsPE promotes fetal vascular dysfunction through activation of a TNF-/Ca2+/NOX5 signaling pathway that amplifies oxidative stress and impairs NO bioavailability. These findings identify NOX5 as a previously unrecognized mediator of umbilical artery dysfunction in PE and suggest the TNF-/Ca2+/NOX5 axis as a potential therapeutic target in hypertensive pregnancies.

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Reduced fecal intestinal alkaline phosphatase is associated with gestational diabetes mellitus: A hospital-based multicentre cross-sectional study in Bangladesh

Chowdhury, P.; Tofail, T.; Akter, N.; Islam, H.; Bokshi, A.; Sultana, M.; Podder, S.; Malo, M. S.; Hasanat, M.

2026-05-19 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.14.26353231 medRxiv
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Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a major metabolic complication of pregnancy with significant maternal and fetal adverse consequences. Beyond classical mechanisms, emerging evidence suggests that gut-derived metabolic endotoxemia may contribute to dysglycemia. Intestinal alkaline phosphatase (IAP), a key enzyme involved in maintaining gut barrier integrity and detoxifying lipopolysaccharides, has been linked to type 2 diabetes mellitus; however, its role in GDM remains largely unexplored. This hospital-based cross-sectional analytical study evaluated fecal IAP levels and their association with GDM among 198 pregnant women recruited from three antenatal care clinics representing three tiers of ANC services. Participants were screened for GDM using a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test and classified as having GDM (n=55) or normal glucose tolerance (NGT; n=143) according to WHO 2013 criteria. Stool samples were collected, and fecal IAP levels were measured using an enzymatic colorimetric assay. Fecal IAP level was significantly lower in women with GDM than in those with NGT (median 23.59 vs 46.48 U/g stool; p<0.001). Lower IAP level remained independently associated with GDM after adjustment for body mass index and previous GDM (adjusted OR 0.98 per unit increase; 95% CI 0.97-0.99; p<0.001). A graded relationship was observed between declining IAP level and GDM. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated modest discrimination (AUC 0.676), while a threshold of approximately 65 U/g stool yielded high sensitivity (89.1%) but lower specificity. Reduced fecal IAP is independently associated with GDM, supporting a potential role of gut-derived metabolic dysregulation in gestational glucose intolerance. While not suitable as a standalone diagnostic tool, fecal IAP may serve as a complementary biomarker for risk stratification during pregnancy. Prospective studies are warranted to determine its predictive value and explore its potential as a therapeutic target.